TOKYO — Japan's growing need to improve its anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities to counter quieter Chinese submarines in littoral waters could set off a three-way race between an upgraded indigenous platform against longer-term solutions, analysts said.

Last August, the Defense Ministry MOD decided to start replacing its aging fleet of 46 SH-60J and 39 SH-60K Seahawk helicopters, providing resulting in an initial ¥7 billion yen (US $57.6 million) in funding budget as part of a ¥48.1 billion yen development project. The a over a procurement that will lead to the deployment of about 80 new helicopters after 2022, according to MoD spokesman Tsuyoshi Hirata said.

On the surface, The procurement mentions indigenous development, so it would seem to , which automatically favors an superficially easy upgrade of the SH-60K produced by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) with more advanced electronics, unless the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) is looking for a longer-term, and more advanced solution, said suggested Matthew Caris, an associate at Avascent Group, a Washington- D.C.- based defense and aerospace consulting group.

"It seems like an odd time and a small amount of money to develop something truly new; perhaps it's the development of a new MHI H-60 variant with entirely indigenous electronics, which would make a lot more sense," he said.

A US-based source speaking on condition of anonymity agreed the SH-60K provided a ready-made and available upgrade and was a logical move.that made the most sense.

"The airframe itself is capable and already integrated into JMSDF operations, so a focus on improvements to mission system sensor and processing capability would likely be sufficient to most economically meet future helicopter ASW requirements," the source said.

But pressures are building that suggest the MoD may expand its search, analysts said.

Baton Rouge Police stand at a checkpoint at the entrance of Our Lady Of The Lake Medical Center, Sunday, July 17, 2016, in Baton Rouge, La. Multiple law enforcement officers were killed and wounded Sunday morning in a shooting near a gas station in Baton Rouge. (Hilary Scheinuk/The Advocate via AP)
Baton Rouge Police stand at a checkpoint at the entrance of Our Lady Of The Lake Medical Center, Sunday, July 17, 2016, in Baton Rouge, La. Multiple law enforcement officers were killed and wounded Sunday morning in a shooting near a gas station in Baton Rouge. (Hilary Scheinuk/The Advocate via AP)

The First, the JMSDF is aware that it badly needs to update its capabilities against the emerging threat of more advanced Chinese PLAN submarines in shallow waters, local defense analyst Shinichi Kiyotani said, and Second, at least some officers in the JMSDF are looking for something much better than the SH-60 platform, which has several well-known and disliked but not openly publicized inadequacies, Kiyotani said. local defense analyst Shinichi Kiyotani.

"The MSDF internally thinks that the SH-60 series is not so good technically any more. It's seen as slow and it suffers from vibration issues, which is a critical point if the MSDF wants more advanced ASW capabilities, and there are other issues," Kiyotani said.

"The impetus for this," Caris said, "is likely twofold: One, the increased aggressiveness and continued growth in the PLAN [Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy] sub fleet, [which the US Navy just announced is now bigger than the US sub fleet]; and two, the recognition that while the SH-60J/K is still in production, it is no longer state-of-the-art." Caris said.

Designed for a deep-water Soviet threat, with the SH-60J is essentially basically a licensed-built 1980s-era SH-60B Seahawk. Its HQS-103 dipping sonar is at least a generation behind state-of-the art systems for detection of threats in littoral waters, Caris said. And while its electronically scanned radar lacks modern processing capabilities such as found on like the MH-60R's automatic radar periscope detection and discrimination system, (ARPDD) which is a key part of the US Navy's littoral ASW capability, he said.

While the SH-60K upgrade added a new rotorblade and an integrated avionics system, the advanced helicopter combat direction system, (AHCDS) none of the basic ASW sensor systems on board was significantly upgraded, he said.

With this in mind, Kiyotani said that pressure iswas building in the JMSDF in particular and the MoD in general to look beyond an SH-60K upgrade.

"The MoD is increasingly unwilling to purchase expensive domestic aircraft anymore," he said. "The [Shinzo] Abe administration has asked Japanese defense industry to go global, and the new procurement agency being set up in April is genuinely looking to favor an export drive with local production. From this view, the SH-60K is looked upon by some very important people as a backward step."

Added to this, Kiyotani said that MHI was already considering exciting the domestic helicopter market with its small contracts to concentrate on its global aerospace business focused on the highly advanced Mitsubishi regional jet.

"MHI may push for an SH-X upgrade on one level, but my sources tell me that senior MHI people want to exit these low-volume and limited domestic contracts and focus on technologies that converge with and focus sales in the global market."

If the JMSDF demands a more fundamental upgrade and the competition is thrown open, Caris said the procurement would probably pit the SH-60K against two later-generation frames in the shape of Lockheed Martin's SH-60R Seahawk or the NH-90 backed by the European Airbus group. the third candidate.

Against all this, Kiyotani deemed the NH-90 as the best solution. "It's very advanced, Australia has already adopted it, it has fly-by-wire, has an advanced composite airframe, it's very good and it has a long hovering time. If Japanese industry can produce it domestically, or at least make components, then it can export them," he said.