SINGAPORE — As the US and China hold fast to legal differing legal opinions about reclaimed land in the South China Sea, analysts and stakeholders are trying alike try to figure out the next step for each country.
China claims that some 2,000 acres of reclaimed land in the South China Sea is sovereign territory. The US claims that reclaimed land is not recognizable under international law. Neither side has shown a willingness to move on the issue.
Delegates at the annual IISS Shangri-La Dialogue spent much of the conference debating what the future hold in the region, given the contradictory stances the two largest powers in the Pacific have taken.
In a keynote speech at the conference, US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter made clear the US policy remains that such territory is not valid, and that the Pentagon will continue to operate around and over the territory.
David Shear, aAssistant sSecretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs, was blunt in comments to reporters Saturday.
"We're not just talking about rocks here," he said of the reclamation issue. "We're talking about laws."
That doesn't leave much room for interpretation – the US has no intentions of backing down from its position. Neither, by all accounts, does China.
That has led to concerns, mentioned by several attendees at the show, that the situation could escalate to another level.
Zhu Feng, executive director at the China Center for Collaborative Studies of the South China Sea at Nanjing University, expressed concern that the US will overplay its reaction to the island reclamation.
One particularly dangerous situation would be if the US moves towards the territory claimed by China, perhaps by sending ships nearby.
That, in turn, could trigger an escalating reaction from China, as Zhu said the nation would certainly respond to the presence of US warships within China's territorial waters.
"Beijing should not overreact, but the placement of US warships in these waters [would demand] a response," Zhu said.
The US has not indicated an interest in sending ships towards the islands, but Carter's insistence the US will "fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world," does not preclude such a situation unfolding.
Another potential issue could be if the US continues to fly over the islands. Recent video, taken by CNN and showing a verbal confrontation between a US surveillance plane and Chinese military forces, showed how tensions can rise quickly in such situations.
History also provides a warning. In 2001, a US Navy EP-3 surveillance aircraft collided with a Chinese fighter jet. The collision caused the EP-3 to make an emergency landing on China's Hainan Island. The crisis lasted until the US government apologized, and the crew was released.
If a US spy plane, such as a P-8, was forced down over Chinese territory, it could lead to a messy situation for the relationship between the two countries.
The best way to avoid that situation happening, Shear indicated, is to maintain the lines of communication. But he did acknowledge the current situation could impact the broader relationship between the US and China.
"We are always trying to strike a balance in the relationship," he said. "Of course, this is a very serious interest, and as in other areas, serious differences can affect the bilateral relationship."
Aaron Mehta was deputy editor and senior Pentagon correspondent for Defense News, covering policy, strategy and acquisition at the highest levels of the Defense Department and its international partners.
