WASHINGTON – Lockheed Martin's top lobbyist, a former high-ranking Pentagon official, is concerned that the lack of political appointees at the Pentagon could have serious effects on programs that expect to award contracts this year.
Robert Rangel, who served as chief of staff for former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates, expressed specific concerns that key decisions on the Air Force's T-X trainer replacement program and its Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) nuclear ICBM replacement could be delayed if appointees from the Trump administration are not in place and up to speed by the summer.
While acknowledging that there is still plenty of time to get individuals in place in top jobs, Rangel told Defense News in a March 22 interview that the pace so far has been slow, noting, "I don't think they're ahead, and the concern is that they are falling behind."
As of publication, the Trump team has put forth nominees for ten spots at the Pentagon, with another 45 remaining empty. (Two of those spots belong to the secretaries of the Army and Navy, for which the White House proposed candidates who later withdrew.)
Among those spots without a nominee is the Undersecretary for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics, the Pentagon’s top weapons buyer – and a spot that will cease to exist in 2018, with its power devolving into two separate offices.
Supporters of the Trump administration argue that the slow pace of nominees for the Pentagon is not a major challenge, as the building has a built in set of experts – in the form of both uniformed and civilian staffers-- who can keep the ball rolling. While acknowledging that, Rangel warned that those individuals are likely to balk at making political decisions.
"Just as a general bureaucratic behavior, people are going to make sure balls are not dropped to the best of their ability, but things get put on the shelf," he said. "The hard decisions, the ones that have most significance, tend to be deferred, either because it’s normal behavior or because that’s the signal from the new team on high that they are only going to permit the permanent civil service team, the actings and holdovers, to operate within a limited space that has an impact."
On top of that, Rangel notes the administration has launched a number of big-picture reviews, such as the Nuclear Posture Review, which will impact decisions made on programs, and "tend not to get off the ground" until a new team is in place.
All of which means industry is watching warily, with a growing concern that big decisions on multibillion-dollar programs may have to be pushed back if relevant DoD spots are not nominated and confirmed in time.
"Summer to the late summer," Rangel said when asked what deadline he is keeping an eye on for appointees to be in place. "And then the question is, you get a new team that comes in and right off the box you have to make this huge multibillion-dollar decision on day three. So just from a keeping the trains running on time standpoint, sooner is better and the overall assessment that they’re falling behind [at nominations] is a little worrisome."
Andrew Hunter, a former Pentagon acquisition official now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agreed with Rangel’s comments.
"While most of the machinery of government will grind on without political appointees in place, strategic decision making is likely to be deferred until the president's team is in place, and acquisition milestones are decisions about investment and acquisition strategy that need input from the department's senior leadership," Hunter said.
In particular, getting the service secretaries in place will be vital for any major decisions, Hunter said. The good news on that front is that Heather Wilson, the White House nominee for Air Force secretary, has already had a nomination hearing and is expected to be easily confirmed. However, Hunter questions how quickly she would feel comfortable making a decision on a major program given other priorities.
"Even with Secretary Wilson in place, however, there could be some delay involved in briefing her up on the issues in play in these decisions, and how they fit into the big picture for the Air Force," he said. "The continuing uncertainty over the budget trajectory also complicates these decisions."
What programs may be impacted? While stressing this is a "hypothetical" concern a the moment, Rangel named the T-X trainer program, the GBSD and the new nuclear cruise missile, known as the Long Range Stand-Off weapon (LRSO), as the ones Lockheed is worried about, along with "a couple of [other programs] that are not as prominent as those."
The biggest deadline for those three is the T-X program, as the Air Force plans to announce the winner of the competition. The winner of the competition will build 350 trainers for the Air Force, a number expected to grow as allies look to buy the same trainer used by the U.S.
The GBSD program is set to go through a technology maturation review, which will down-select the competitors to two, sometime before the end of the year, and the LRSO program is expected to go through its own maturation review this winter as well. Both would be impacted by the Nuclear Posture Review, which has yet to formally begin. However, top Air Force generals have told reporters that they expect the review to take about six months time, which would allow it to impact the FY19 budget plan.
Aaron Mehta was deputy editor and senior Pentagon correspondent for Defense News, covering policy, strategy and acquisition at the highest levels of the Defense Department and its international partners.
