Almost two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Pentagon shared new figures on the toll that war has had on Moscow.

Military operations in Ukraine have cost Russia up to $211 billion and the country has lost $10 billion in canceled or paused arms sales. At least 20 medium to large Russian naval vessels have been sunk in the Black Sea and 315,000 Russian soldiers have either been killed or wounded, according to U.S. Department of Defense data.

These figures, shared by a senior defense official speaking with reporters on the condition of anonymity, are in part an attempt for the Pentagon to show its work on the effect of Ukraine aid. U.S. support for Kyiv helps a democratic partner defend itself, while at the same time degrading America’s second-leading adversary in Russia. The Pentagon’s estimates show how deep those costs have been.

And yet, the official described the current state of the war as precarious for Ukraine, not Russia.

After months of defending the eastern city of Avdiivka, Ukrainian forces there are on the brink of collapse. Taking the city would mark Russia’s largest advance since it seized Bakhmut last year. The flagging front lines are in large part a product of ammunition shortages, which have grown more acute since the Pentagon ran out of money for Ukraine aid late last year, the official said — warning that the problems in Avdiivka may not stop there.

“We see this as something that could be the harbinger of what is to come if we do not get this supplemental funding,” the official said, referencing $60 billion in further aid the White House requested last year.

A version of that deal passed the Senate on bipartisan lines this week but has little chance of success in the House, where Republican Speaker Mike Johnson has said he won’t put it up for a vote.

In the interim, the official said, Ukrainian forces are running out of ammunition and air defense interceptors, which help defend the country’s critical infrastructure from Russian attacks.

The U.S. is not the only country sending military support to Ukraine. This week marked the 19th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a set of countries that have helped bolster Kyiv’s self defense over the last two years. Canada pledged $60 million to support Ukraine’s air force and Germany announced a $1.2 billion air defense and artillery package.

Still, it was notably the second straight meeting in which the U.S. provided no aid of its own, a streak that will continue if the supplemental does not pass in Congress.

“Our military is always working to be as prepared as possible, but we do absolutely need this supplemental funding,” the official said. “There is no substitute for it.”

Noah Robertson is the Pentagon reporter at Defense News. He previously covered national security for the Christian Science Monitor. He holds a bachelor’s degree in English and government from the College of William & Mary in his hometown of Williamsburg, Virginia.

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