TEL AVIV, Israel — With an aggrieved minority at home, restless millions under occupation just minutes from home and radicalism roiling the region, Israeli security officials are girding for a spectrum of threats in the run-up to spring holidays here.
At least six major holidays fall from March 30 to May 24, the former an annual Land Day event commemorating the first act of mass resistance by Israel's Arab citizens nearly 40 years ago; the latter the Jewish Festival of Weeks celebrating receipt of the holy Torah on Mount Sinai.
In between are Passover, Easter, Israeli Independence Day and its flipside — Nakba Day — where Palestinians here and abroad mark the "Day of Catastrophe" borne from the Jewish State's creation in 1948.
In the aftermath of March 17 elections, here, Arab citizens are still seething from what was widely viewed here as an attempt by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to delegitimize nearly one-fifth of the populace, said Lucy Aharish, a popular Arab Israeli television news anchor.
Netanyahu subsequently apologized for his exhortations to counter the "droves" of Arab voters with a vote for his right-of-center Likud Party. But despite his March 25 pledge to "heal the rifts that opened between the various segments of society during the election campaign," the Israel Police is poised for a region galvanized for action.
In a mid-March, four-page missive, the Operational Branch of the Israel Police said upcoming Land Day occurs against a backdrop of "nationalistically inspired" stabbings, vehicular attacks and other recent acts in and around Jerusalem.
Beware Flashpoints
While it is unaware of any concrete threats, police forces are preparing for scenarios from mass marches, demonstrations near consulates and embassies, and "friction" between Israeli Arabs and their leftist sympathizers and right wing "elements" nationwide.
An extreme scenario is the outbreak of violent riots "on multiple fronts as a result of escalation of planned events."
In a March 10 letter to commanders and security officers obtained by Defense News, Superintendent Meidad Lavie cited provocations on the Temple Mount, protests against to Israel's destruction of illegal structures in the Arab sector, altercations in mixed Arab-Jewish communities and agitation by right-wing and, alternatively, pro-Palestinian elements as potential flashpoints.
"It is advised to keep open channels of communication with leaders of the Arab sector in order to update the situational picture and hone our ability to act," he wrote.
He also stressed the importance of cooperating with police forces of the Palestinian Authority in areas around Jerusalem and in holy sites in the West Bank.
Clear and Present Danger
Threats just beyond the Green Line — where military and crack Border Police forces operate instead of cops in blue — present a clear, present and persistent danger to Israeli soldiers and civilians, officers here said.
"Hundreds of events, terror attempts and assaults remind us every day of the difficulties characteristic of this unique sector," Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff, said at a March 25 change-of-command ceremony.
"Terror organizations are operating every day in attempts to harm civilians and our forces active in Judea and Samaria," Eisenkot said, using biblical names for the northern and southern sectors of the West Bank.
Israel's top officer noted that a recent command-wide drill demonstrated that forces in the sector are "powerful and ready for any challenge."
A survey of events for the week of March 17-24, published March 26 by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, cited the arrest of a Hamas cell operating in Kalkiliya just across the Green Line from the bedroom community of Kfar Saba. According to the report, six members were recruited while visiting Jordan and underwent training in the Gaza Strip.
Other events included a failed attempt to run over soldiers at the Gush Etzion junction in the West Bank and an Israeli raid on a bomb-making shop in Nablus. Of the six suspects arrested in the latter incident, two were students of al-Najah University in Nablus, which the center described as "a focal point for incitement and terror."
While Palestine Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas remains firmly in command of his police and security forces and continues to exhort nonviolent resistance, the report cited myriad concerns expressed by senior Palestinian officials about Netanyahu's re-election.
Officially, the report noted that PA leaders claim maintain election results are an internal Israeli matter and that the PA is committed to negotiating with any Israeli government on the basis of a two-state solution with Jerusalem as capital of the future Palestinian state.
Still, the report said, "Senior PA officials expressed worry about the election results and statements made during the campaign and stressed that the Palestinians intend to turn to international institutions, including the International Criminal Court, to implement their 'rights.' "
Netanyahu recanted his pre-election repudiation of the two-state solution due to pressure from many quarters, including from the American Jewish community and to the White House. Nevertheless, Israel's supporters in Washington, as well as those with whom he must negotiate a two-state deal, remain doubtful.
"The Israelis voted for the end of the peace process," said Saeb Erekat, a longtime Palestinian negotiator. At a March 24 conference in Washington of J Street, a left-of-center lobby group, Erekat said, "We realize Benjamin Netanyahu is not a two-stater … That is why we will do what we need to do to save the two-state solution."
Little Respite Abroad
For Israelis planning international travel during the upcoming holiday season, the Counter-Terrorism Bureau (CTB) of the National Security Council published sweeping warnings to stay away from 41 countries, nearly a quarter of UN member states.
Even to countries in Europe and Latin America where no travel advisories are in place, CTB urges Israelis to be on high alert for terror or kidnapping attempts and "to exercise due caution at all times."
"The global terrorist campaign by Iran and Hizbollah continues to threaten Israeli and Jewish targets around the world, especially 'soft' targets, i.e. tourists and Jewish symbols," according to its website.
Citing last summer's war in Gaza and a number of covert operations against Hezbollah and Iran attributed to Israel, counterterror authorities here urge citizens to "reject any enticing and unpredictable" overtures encountered during business or leisure travel.
"According to our information, there continues to exist threats of revenge killings or kidnap attempts against Israelis abroad, particularly businessmen, former employees of the state system," CTB warned.
The counterterror bureau noted that warnings are based on "solid and reliable information, which reflects a real threat, based on the intelligence picture for a specific period."
Rankings range from Code Burgundy — countries where citizens are either forbidden or strongly urged not to visit due to "very high concrete threat" — to Code Yellow where "ongoing potential threats" warrant essential travel only.
"Recent terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists in Belgium, Canada, Australia, France and Denmark raise concerns over additional attacks against Western targets, including Israeli and Jewish targets, by veterans of the fighting in Syria and Iraq who are affiliated with Global Jihad (including Islamic State) and by local elements inspired by the terrorist organizations," CTB announced March 23.
By law, Israelis are forbidden to travel to six [Code Burgundy] countries defined as enemy states: Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Yemen.
Additionally, CTB advises citizens to avoid or leave immediately 10 additional "very high concrete threat" states or conflict-ridden regions, including include Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, southern Thailand, the island of Mindanao in the southern Philippines, Chechnya, Kashmir, Sinai and northern Nigeria.
Countries designated as Code Red, or high concrete threat, include Algeria, Burkina Faso, Djibouti, Indonesia, Ivory Coast, Malaysia, Mali, Mauritania, Pakistan, Togo and Tunisia.
"Any Israelis present in these countries are advised to leave immediately," the bureau urged.
As for countries designated as Code Orange — those posing a "basic concrete threat" — CTB cited United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Egypt and Qatar.
Israelis are urged to avoid visiting those countries.
Among Code Yellow countries — the lowest travel advisory ranking constituting those posing "ongoing potential threats" — are Azerbaijan, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, Oman and Turkey. CTB reminded Israelis that travel to those countries is at their own risk.
This year's pre-spring holiday warnings appear to be more sweeping and severe than in previous years. In 2014, for example, Tunisia was listed as a basic concrete threat rather than the "high concrete threat" ranking in last week's notice.
Similarly, many of countries listed this year as "very high concrete threats," including Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan, were one notch down on the threat scale in warnings issued in 2014.
If there was a bit of good news in the CTB's 2015 warning, it's for those planning travel to Tajikistan and Bangladesh. Those countries did not appear on this year's travel advisory, although they were designated as "continuing potential threats" in previous years.
Email: bopallrome@defensenews.com
Twitter: @OpallRome
Opall-Rome is Israel bureau chief for Defense News. She has been covering U.S.-Israel strategic cooperation, Mideast security and missile defense since May 1988. She lives north of Tel Aviv. Visit her website at www.opall-rome.com.