ANKARA — A historic plan for peace with the Kurds may in the longer term reshuffle Turkey's procurement plans, officials and analysts say.
"The Kurdish insurgency in most of the last three decades has been the top security threat to Turkey. Naturally, our procurement plans in that period shaped up in line with that threat. An end to asymmetrical war will inevitably alter what our military's priority shopping list," said a senior security official said.
An Ankara-based defense analyst said that if the peace plan successfully goes went ahead, Turkey's procurement requirements would gradually shift from gear designed to fight asymmetrical warfare to more conventional equipment and systems.
"In a way, Turkey's military planners have felt chained to the Kurdish threat and compelled to buy more to fight that war than procuring for more conventional threats," the analyst said. "They have tried to maintain a balance between the two, with the asymmetrical threat always coming first. Once they feel unchained of that forceful situation, they will feel freer to procure against more conventional threats." said the analyst.
But a London-based Turkey specialist remains skeptical.
"It will take some time before the Turkish generals and political leaders feel totally free of the Kurdish threat," he said. "I would expect a kind of very soft, not just soft, landing from spending for anti-terror equipment and systems to spending for conventional warfare equipment."
On Feb. 28, the Turkish government and Kurdish leaders announced a landmark deal that could may soon end 31 years of violence in the country. The pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) announced at a joint press conference with senior Cabinet ministers a call by the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) for a congress in spring to discuss disarmament.
Around 40,000 people have lost their lives since 1984, when the PKK launched an armed struggle for a Kurdish homeland.
"This is a historic declaration of will to replace armed struggle with democratic politics," HDP's Sırrı Sureyya Onder said. He quoted PKK's leader, Abdullah Ocalan, calling for a reinforced cease-fire.
Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Yalcin Akdogan said that disarmament of the PKK would boost the process of a democratic solution.
The announcement came after several rounds of negotiations aimed at a solution to Turkey's decades-long Kurdish problem, and included a 10-article joint communiqué outlining the new road map to peace.
The outline addresses a definition and the content of democratic politics; definition of the national and local dimensions of democratic solution; legal and democratic warranties of free citizenship; handling the democracy-security ties during the resolution process in a manner that will sustain both public order and freedoms; developing a pluralist democracy that looks for defining the concept of identity; and defining concepts of democratic republic, common homeland and nation with democratic criteria.
Analysts say that Ocalan's call means to say that the PKK will no longer launch armed attacks inside Turkey and will lay down arms during the process.
The Ankara government first launched peace talks with the PKK in 2012. While there have been ups and downs, negotiations silently have progressed quietly and the parties have for the first time announced a complete disarmament and an end of violence.
The United States on March 3 welcomed on Monday the PKK's plan to lay down its arms against the Turkish military. "We would welcome all steps in support of a peaceful resolution in this conflict and commend the efforts of both the government and all parties concerned to work towards a lasting peace," said State Department deputy spokeswoman Marie Harf.
One procurement official said no that there has not been a significant change in armament plans has occurred in the past few years, when Turkey and the Kurds silently negotiated peace, but this may change in the future.
"We did not know if peace talks would progress, so the military preferred to be cautious. If peace prevails in the years ahead, say in five year's time, we may see a totally different shopping list, save for a few systems," he said.
He explained: "Some equipment and systems have a dual nature, that they can be used in both asymmetrical and conventional wars. With or without the PKK threat, we will always need smart ammunitions, attack helicopters and drones. However, the quantities of these systems that we feel we need may change in line with disappearance of the PKK threat."
The London-based Turkey specialist said that even without the PKK, Turkey must deal with the presence of will probably be bordering various terrorist organizations across its Syrian and Iraqi borders in the near future.
"I do not think the military's perception of security threat from a rich menu of terrorist organizations will disappear quickly," he said. "The generals will wish to be prepared to fight such threats at all times. But they may change their threat priorities and hence requirements."
Email: bbekdil@defensenews.com
Burak Ege Bekdil was the Turkey correspondent for Defense News.
More In Industry
