WASHINGTON — Donald Trump's candidacy is struggling, and that's bad news for a rising star in the Republican party, Sen. Kelly Ayotte.
New Hampshire, where Ayotte is running for reelection, once leaned blue for Trump's Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, but is now "likely" blue, The Center for Politics, at the University of Virginia, announced Thursday.
Trump's sagging poll numbers threaten to energize Democrats and demotivate Republicans to vote, a scenario that would not only damage Ayotte's chances but threaten the GOP's majority in Congress.
Republicans hold 54 seats in the Senate, with 34 seats up on Election Day, 24 of them Republican. Six of those are considered to be in play — Florida, Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Geoffrey Skelley, with Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, at the Center for Politics.
"At the moment, most of these Republican incumbents in question such as Ayotte, are running ahead of Trump," Skelley said. "The problem for Ayotte is that Trump may be just too much of an anchor in the end. We'll see, and we have the [New Hampshire Senate] race as a toss-up, but the trend is too hard to ignore."
The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report on Friday nudged their New Hampshire prediction on the presidential race from "Toss-up/Tilt DEM" to "lean DEM." It continued to rank the New Hampshire Senate race a "Pure Toss-up," a reflection of Ayotte's greater popularity than Trump with New Hampshire voters.
Trump's Democratic rival Hillary Clinton is beating him 45 to 35.7 percent in New Hampshire polls, while Clinton leads Trump by 5.5 points nationally, according to Real Clear Politics averages. In New Hampshire, Ayotte is in a virtual tie with her rival, Gov. Maggie Hassan.
"New Hampshire is a state where Donald Trump is starting to drag down the rest of the ticket," said Nathan Gonzales, of the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report. "I'm confident Sen. Ayotte will over-perform Donald Trump, but it's a question of whether she will do what she needs to do to survive."
Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, was more optimistic about Ayotte's chances because of her more stable position in the polls.
"The better Trump does, the better Ayotte does, but I'm not necessarily convinced that [Trump's declining poll numbers] negatively impact her," Smith said. "It's because she's not tied to Trump, she's only tied to Trump with the "R" after her name on the ballot."
While there are enough opportunities for Democrats that New Hampshire is not considered a must-win state, Democrats see it as rightfully theirs because they have won every gubernatorial election since 1996, a Senate seat in 2008 and 2014 and every presidential election since 1992, with the exception of the 2000 election. The GOP wants to protect Ayotte as a significant figure for the party's future and its Senate majority.
Both sides want it badly. The race is on pace to become the most expensive political campaign in the state's history, according to New Hampshire Public Radio. Total spending stands at $34 million, and Ayotte had more than $7 million in the bank at the end of June; Hassan had $4.3 million.
Ayotte, 48, served as New Hampshire's first female attorney general and was mentioned as a possible running mate for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in 2012.
In the Senate, Ayotte serves on the Armed Services, Homeland Security and Budget committees, and as counsel to Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. Among other national issues, Ayotte has campaigned to keep the Air Force's budget axe away from the A-10 Thunderbolt II, which her husband flew in Iraq.
Though Ayotte surfed the 2010 anti-Obama wave into the Senate, she is no Tea Party acolyte and is considered a mainstream Republican centrist. She was called "a disciple" of the hawkish Senate Armed Services Chairman John McCain, R-Ariz., by the Boston Globe.
To hold onto her seat, Ayotte needs both the support of Republicans who support Trump and Republicans who oppose him, and has thus attempted a public high wire act. In a CNN interview this week, Ayotte said she is voting for Trump but not endorsing him—arguing there is a difference. Endorsement would mean campaigning with Trump, something she won't do.
Just as Ayotte is campaigning in Trump's shadow, Hassan is campaigning in the shadow of Hillary Clinton, who has significant baggage this election. Clinton has been dogged by scandal over her use of a private email server when she was the secretary of state.
While Democrats, and some Republicans, have attacked Trump's temperament and experience as ill-suited to a commander-in-chief, Hassan stumbled on a question of whether she thought Clinton was honest and trustworthy—a question that has plagued the Democratic nominee.
Earlier this week in a CNN interview, Hassan declined to answer the question three times, dodging and instead praising Clinton's other qualities. The following day, Hassan, and active supporter of Clinton's, clarified that "yes" she does trust her.
"Ayotte doesn't have a problem distancing herself from Donald Trump whereas Maggie Hassan does have trouble distancing herself from Hillary Clinton—and both Clinton and Trump are wildly unpopular here," Smith said. "
The presidential race generally considered the main driver of turnout, which suggests that if Trump is polling poorly close to the election, Republicans won't vote. Some models suggest this is already happening with Republican base voters who Trump has struggled to capture.
"If they don't show up, it could be very damaging to Republicans down-ballot," Skelley said.
Though New Hampshire is a state with a large white population, and Trump tends to do well with white voters. However, Trump struggles with college graduates, and more than a third of New Hampshire voters graduated from college.
If Clinton were to carry white college graduates, it would be a historic first. "There is a group of voters who are largely comfortable with the demographic shifts taking place in this country, and they tend to vote Democratic; fundamentally they are are more inclined to vote for Clinton and thus be turned off by the message Trump is sending."
There are two demographic groups that could disrupt the election, according to Smith: Younger supporters of Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders whose support for Clinton is unclear and white blue collar supporters, a group that rarely turns out to vote.
"The election is going to get really nasty, and that's going to turn off the young Democrats and the blue collar voters," Smith said. "That's a curious thing here."
Smith was reluctant to speculate where New Hampshire might ultimately land this early on, but said that if voters there follow familiar patterns, New Hampshire's Republican electorate will turn out no matter what is happening in the general election and vote with their party — which means they will buoy Ayotte to victory.
"What you're seeing is a lot of Republicans who aren't comfortable with Trump, but by the time of the election, they'll come up with reasons to justify why they'll vote for Trump over Clinton," Smith said. "The Republicans who don't like Trump, they are older, habitual voters and they're going to show up and vote anyway."
Email: jgould@defensenews.com
Twitter: @reporterjoe
Joe Gould was the senior Pentagon reporter for Defense News, covering the intersection of national security policy, politics and the defense industry. He had previously served as Congress reporter.
