Poll: Paul Leads Clinton in Two Swing States

WASHINGTON — Sen. Rand Paul kicks off his presidential campaign with a lead over would-be Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in two key swing states, says a new poll.

Who wins both nominations and eventually the White House will have a major impact on annual Pentagon budgets, defense policy and US foreign policy. Clinton and establishment Republicans like Bush and Rubio are likely the closest on those issues, with Paul in favor of larger Defense Department budgets but a less-muscular foreign policy.

In Colorado, Paul leads Clinton 44 percent to 41 percent. In Iowa, the poll gives Paul a 43 percent to 42 percent edge over Clinton. And in Virginia, the Democrat — who has yet to announce whether she's running — leads by four points, 47 percent to 43 percent.

The poll, conducted March 29-April 7 with a 3.2 percentage point margin of error, shows Clinton trending downward after a flap over her use of a private email account and server while serving as secretary of state.

"These numbers are a boost for US Sen. Rand Paul … as he formally launches his campaign," Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a statement.

"Ominous for Hillary Clinton is the broad scope of the movement today compared to her showing in Quinnipiac University's mid-February survey," Brown said.

That's because "it isn't just one or two Republicans who are stepping up; it's virtually the entire GOP field that is running better against her," he said. "That's why it is difficult to see Secretary Clinton's slippage as anything other than a further toll on her image from the furor over her e-mail."

Among those surveyed in Colorado, Clinton leads former Florida GOP Gov. Jeb Bush by three points, 41 percent to 38 percent. She also leads New Jersey Republican Gov. Chris Christie 41 percent to 39 percent.

But she's virtually running even there with four other Republicans: Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.

Notably, a majority of those polled in Colorado (56 percent) dubbed Clinton not honest and trustworthy, compared to 38 percent who said she is.

"Hillary Clinton still has a mountain or two to climb to win the hearts of Coloradans who don't trust her," Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in the statement. "The email controversy is opening doors to candidates who had little traction as Hillary Clinton gets bad numbers on trust and honesty."

In Iowa, Clinton leads Walker 44 percent to 40 percent. She leads both Rubio and Cruz 43 percent to 40 percent, and Christie 41 percent to 39 percent. She's virtually tied with the rest of the GOP field in the Hawkeye State.

On honesty and trustworthiness in Iowa, 49 percent of those polled said she is not and 43 percent feel she is.

"Iowa epitomizes the image of a swing state," Brown said. "When Hillary Clinton is matched against seven of the GOP hopefuls, all of those mythical matchups have a difference of four percentage points or less."

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In addition to Paul, Clinton also leads every other GOP candidate and expected candidate in Virginia.

She is up 48 percent to 40 percent over both Rubio and Huckabee in the commonwealth. She leads Walker 47 percent to 40 percent, and Bush 46 percent to 40 percent. And she is up 10 percent on Cruz, 49 percent to 39 percent.

Despite those leads, a majority of Virginians polled (56 percent) say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, while 40 percent say she is not.

"Of the three states tested, Virginia seems to be the friendliest toward Hillary Clinton, perhaps a continuing reflection of the Old Dominion's leftward drift over the past decade," said Brown. "Only yesterday, it seemed, it was deeply red."

Email: jbennett@defensenews.com

Twitter: @bennettjohnt

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