Wide-open market: Global demand for new fighters, attack aircraft surges

The theory for a good while, perhaps perpetuated by the United States, was that the Joint Strike Fighter would diminish the opportunities for fighters; that competitions would be fewer and far between as the F-35 dominated global demand.

But the last few years have brought newfound interest in fleet replacements from countries around the world, many of which might not be in a position to invest in the U.S. fifth-generation alternative. According to data from Avascent Analytics, the total number of ongoing or potential competitions for fighters, bombers and attack aircraft is 54. Narrow that to only stated competitions and there's 21: seven in Asia, four in the Americas, eight in Europe, and two in the Middle East and North Africa. Collectively, the stated competitions in those regions from 2011 to 2027 are valued at $106.7 billion.

In the below map, hover over the dots for information about stated competitions.

The still mysterious Air Force bomber

Details have been few regarding the U.S. Air Force Long Range Strike Bomber, dubbed the B-21 Bomber, but few question the huge amount of money that will filter toward the program during the next decade. 

The Air Force awarded Northrop Grumman the contract to develop and produce the B-21 Raider in October 2015. 

While most details on this program are classified, few other specifics are available, though progress is underway: Northrop stealthily hit a milestone recently, wrapping up its preliminary design review. During a House Armed Services Committee hearing on nuclear deterrence, Gen. Stephen Wilson, the Air Force's vice chief of staff, told lawmakers that he receives regular updates on the uber-classified program: "It's making great progress, and we're pleased with the way it's headed." 

Japan looks to future tech

Among the more interesting efforts is happening in Japan, with major efforts underway to respond to China's fifth-gen aircraft, as well as other advanced platforms in the region. 

"The earlier F-2 program, though it was expensive and produced a lackluster aircraft, did contribute technological innovations to various commercial sectors," said Aaron Lin, a market analyst with Avascent. 

The government has acknowledged the value of that commercial impact and is now looking to the ATD-X (X-2 once it was handed over from MHI to the government) as "primarily a testbed for fifth-generation technology," Lin said. The 2018 milestone is to decide whether Japan will acquire their fifth-generation fighter through a completely domestic development, a joint development with a foreign partner or a foreign "off-the-shelf" platform.

This is separate from the sixth-generation fighter, which is still in the conceptual stage. 

"The sixth-gen program will draw some lessons from the fifth-gen program," Lin said. But "like other nations, [Japan is] still trying to work out the details of what defines a sixth-generation fighter." 

A Japan Ministry if Defense document from 2010 projects that all the technologies needed for the concept of a sixth-generation aircraft won't be realized until the 2040s or 2050s.

Here are the five biggest programs among stated competitions:

U.S. Air Force Long Range Strike Bomber

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