TEL AVIV, Israel — Wednesday's shocking upset victory of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his rival, Zionist Union head Isaac Herzog, has cast doubt over the viability of the future of a Palestinian state.

With pre-election polls showing a four-seat lead for Herzog, Netanyahu ended up five six seats ahead in the final count of March 17 polls. After spending the final days of his campaign frantically shoring up support from his right-wing base, Netanyahu is headed for his fourth term as Israel's prime minister, with his Likud Party commanding 2830 seats in the next government.

Netanyahu's victory effectively rendered null and void a 2009 speech at Bar Ilan University, where he endorsed the notion of a Palestinian state living side by side with Israel.

"I think that anyone who is going to establish a Palestinian state today and evacuate lands is giving attack grounds to the radical Islam against the state of Israel … there is a real threat here that a left-wing government will join the international community and follow its orders," Netanyahu rationalized to undecided voters on the eve of Tuesday's election.

He is now expected to form a right-wing government consisting of the National Religious Bayit Yehudi, and Ultra-Orthodox parties, and the more centrist Kulanu party (led by former-Likud member Moshe Khalon), — all of whom are reluctant to support a Palestinian state should talks resume once a new government is formed.

The timetable for this new government is elusive, with negotiations between party members expected to last from one to two months after Netanyahu makes his recommendations to President Rueven Rivlin.

US President Barack Obama refrained from congratulating Netanyahu on his victory until that new government takes shape.

"We're going to give space to the formation of that coalition government and we're not going to weigh in one way or another except to say that the United States and Israel have a historic and close relationship and that will continue going forward," said David Simas, director of the White House's Office of Political Strategy Outreach said.

That said, US administration officials are clear that the resumption of talks is a high priority.

"Only a two-state solution that results in a secure Israel alongside a sovereign and independent Palestine can bring lasting peace and stability to both people," State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki said. "Of course, we will continue to pursue this goal with the new Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority." State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki said.

According to analysts, though, the prospect of that is grim.

Linking Netanyahu's rhetoric this week warning the right against strong voter turnout among it's 20 percent Israeli Arab population, an opinion piece in the left-leaning Haaretz lamented that if Israel's citizens were treated in such a manner, there is no hope for a Palestinian state.

"How will Obama respond when [Palestinian President] Abu Mazen shows up at the UN, saying that this is the real Israel, racist with its four-fifths Jews and one fifth Moslems and Christians whose Arab origins make them second-class citizens; that this is an Israel wishing to de facto annex the West Bank and make its residents third-class citizens?" Amir Oren, of Haaretz wrote.

The Palestinian Authority, too, reacted with dismay at Wednesday morning's returns.

"The results of the Israeli elections are the natural outcome of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's policies throughout his previous tenures of generating fear, hostility and distrust, as well as shifting the whole terrain of political discourse to the racist extreme," Dr. Hanan Ashrawi, a PLO Executive Committee Mmember, said in a statement.

Email: bopallrome@defensenews.com.

About Barbara Opall-Rome

Opall-Rome is Israel bureau chief for Defense News. She has been covering U.S.-Israel strategic cooperation, Mideast security and missile defense since May 1988. She lives north of Tel Aviv. Visit her website at www.opall-rome.com.

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