Other potential buys? Japan, South Korea and Singapore have expressed interest in the Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey capable of vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL). The VTOL capability gives these countries significant options to continue operations after air bases are destroyed by ballistic missiles and air-to-ground bombs. VTOL capabilities also factor into the Big Four’s interest in the F-35B variant for the same reason, particularly Taiwan since it faces a ballistic missile threat numbering around 1,300 Chinese ballistic missiles.

Nugent said AMI’s profile of the Big Four’s navies, looking at budgets, budget share, force structure and personnel, divides them into two groups. Japan’s and South Korea’s navies are regional forces with considerable capability to deploy and operate globally, centered in their large multipurpose aviation capabilities, amphibious warships and Aegis-equipped surface combatants. Both have balanced force structures, with modern capabilities in the submarine, surface and air domains, as well as robust potential over land capability, such as the South Korean Marine Corps. South Korea’s naval structure is driven by North Korea, but also other regional threats, such as China and Russia. Japan, traditionally centered on countering the Russian threat, is now displaced by the China threat.

Bitzinger said that Japan would continue to focus on China’s ability to challenge Japanese military power in the East China Sea, particularly the competing claims over the Senkaku Islands. 

It is responding by building up its submarine force, and its ability to engage in power projection, particularly its growing fleet of helicopter destroyers — Izumo- and Hyuga-class.

It is also upgrading its maritime patrol aircraft assets with the indigenously produced P-1 Maritime Patrol Aircraft.

Taiwan and Singapore are much more local forces, Nugent said, with naval structures centered on specific mission sets. In Taiwan’s case it is clearly an extension of the national homeland defense mission against China. Singapore’s Navy is designed to contribute to the deterrence or poison shrimp strategy against would-be large nation aggressors using its submarine force, while having the forces to execute maritime security missions in the South China Sea and Straits of Malacca.

The other strategic driver of future maritime requirements for the four countries has been the United States’ relative decline in capability in numbers of ships, aircraft and personnel — notably anti-submarine warfare and anti-surface warfare in the Asia-Pacific region — over the past 15 years, or essentially since 9/11.

“Which means that all four navies, in greater or lesser degree, must invest to maintain balance in their fleets across all the domains, while acquiring some of the capabilities, such as logistics, C4ISR and unmanned craft that traditionally have been provided by US,” Nugent said.

The air show, scheduled for Nov. 1-6, in Guangdong, China, is now the largest air show in Asia, greatly outshining the Singapore Airshow in size and variety in both the commercial and military markets. US and European commercial companies, such as Boeing and Airbus, erect large booths and chalets to market their aircraft; though US defense companies are prohibited by sanctions to sell weapons to China, the Russians, Europeans, South Africans and others are heavily invested in the defense customer base who attend. 

Defense News will be covering the air show once again this year.

Taiwan is also

moving forward with the Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program to build eight attack submarines. With a total of ten attack submarines armed with Mk-48 torpedoes and additional UGM-84L Harpoons, China will hesitate to invade Taiwan, according to the MND source. 

The FMS contract was awarded to California-based PKL Services, Inc. on Sept. 6. The modification is part of a continuation of FMS awards that began in 2012 with a five-year, $51 million contract also awarded to PKL.

The 366th Contracting Squadron at Mountain Home is the contracting activity. The 428th Fighter Squadron under the 366th Fighter Wing conducts the training.

Singapore also has an F-16 fighter training squadron at Luke Air Force Base, Arizona.

The NASC is responsible for domestic SAR operations for use in a variety of emergency contingencies. Taiwan is a heavily mountainous area prone to earthquakes and typhoons. Taiwan’s air force also has SAR helicopters available for emergency scenarios; these include 12 Sikorsky S-70 utility helicopters and three Eurocopter EC225 Super Puma SAR helicopters.

The local aviation company, Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC), signed a teaming agreement for the transfer of technology, co-production and technical assistance for the M-346, but the election of a new president, Tsai Ing-wen, has thrown a wrench into the deal.

Tsai has pledged to develop indigenous weapon systems and wean Taiwan off its dependence on foreign-made arms.

Tsai has put AIDC and the Air Force in a difficult position. The new government wants to build a completely indigenous trainer, dubbed the XAT-5 AJT, according to a senior AIDC official. The Leonardo agreement is still in effect, he said, but the new president wants to change it.

“Leonardo is trying to save the agreement with a big public relations effort, but we are waiting for a final decision on whether the president will accept open bidding that will include foreign companies or go with a totally indigenous product,” he said.

The decision is expected in September.

A Leonardo spokesperson said AIDC and the M-346 are strongly linked.

“AIDC is the local partner for the Honeywell M-346’s engines, assembled in Taiwan by the ITEC [International Turbine Engine Company] consortium, participated by AIDC,” the spokesperson said. “Considering that, we can say that the Taiwanese M-346 version will have at least 50 percent of its content made in Taiwan. Within that, one of the scopes of the collaboration between Leonardo and AIDC is to guarantee to the transfer of competences to AIDC to perform possible customizations and/or upgrades to the aircraft configuration.”

Despite the urging of Tsai to indigenously build the aircraft with minimum foreign assistance, Taiwan might have no choice but to go with the M-346 option, said a Taiwan defense analyst. The indigenous option, by comparison, is of a higher risk and requires significantly more research and development, estimated by AIDC to cost of $2.3 billion for the entire program from birth to death.

“If I were Taiwan, I would probably make it a requirement that the avionics suite be sourced locally, via AIDC or Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology, since that is the only area where there could be any real added value in the whole project,” said the Taiwan defense analyst. Local licensed production of the aircraft would also be an important factor to allow Tsai to save face, he said.

“Having said all that, it is important to remember that defense industry policy issues are poorly informed and underdebated in Taiwan,” he said. “So the XAT-5 program would likely devolve into indigenous versus foreign controversies, without real thought being given to just exactly how much Taiwan’s aerospace industry could hope to gain by adopting a totally indigenous trainer of which the Air Force will be the sole user with a very limited installed base of 66 aircraft that would be extremely difficult to sustain.”

Taiwan’s AT-3 aircraft were built in the 1980s and built by AIDC with foreign assistance. The replacement will be fielded to two bases: one in Taitung to replace the aging F-5E/F Tigers and the other in Kangshan to replace the AT-3s.

The Taiwanese Navy has a requirement to replace two inoperable World War II-era Guppy-class attack submarines as well as the life extension program for its two Dutch-built Sea Dragon-class (Zwaardvis Mk 2) submarines built during the early 1980s.

The new Submarine Development Center of CSBC (SDCC) will produce a design for the IDS under a budget of $95 million by the end of this year.

Taiwan’s Navy has expressed frustration since the US agreed to assist Taiwan in the acquisition of eight diesel attack submarines in 2001, but was unable to fulfill the promise due to pressure from China and technological challenges. The US has not built a diesel electric submarine since the Barbel-class in the 1950s.

“CSBC’s establishment of a submarine development center is a positive sign,” said Mark Stokes, executive director of the Project 2049 Institute, a think tank based in Washington, DC. “Taiwan’s defense industry is taking the submarine program seriously. If licensed, US partners have a supporting role to play in the IDS program.”

Stokes served as the Pentagon’s team chief and senior country director for Taiwan in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs during the 2001 arms release. He is described by many within the US and Taiwan defense industries as a major advocate of Taiwan’s acquisition of submarines.

The SDCC announcement comes only a month before the 2016 Kaohsiung International Maritime and Defense Industry Expo. Taiwan’s Navy is implementing a wide-ranging fleet modernization effort that includes Aegis destroyers, frigates, high-speed minelayers, landing platform docks, additional stealthy Tuo Jiang-class missile corvette catamarans and multi-purpose transports.

There is some skepticism in Taiwan over the IDS and the larger fleet modernization and recapitalization efforts.

Ching Chang, a research fellow of the Taipei-based Society for Strategic Studies and former Taiwan naval officer, sees a potential incentive to drive associated economic activities in the manufacturing and service sectors.

However, “one leaf makes no autumn,” Chang said; his concern is that the limited numbers of build programs will not survive beyond domestic demand. This was the case, Chang said, with the production of the Indigenous Defense Fighter during the 1990s that ceased after 130 aircraft and the line closed.

Ultimately the real decision on whether Taiwan has a successful submarine and surface vessel recapitalization program lies in Washington, DC, which approves much of the advanced technological defense exports Taipei relies so heavily on, Chang said. With the coming election, there will be a delay until summer when the new US National Security Council settles into work and examines the request in accordance with the incoming president’s policy goals.