ANKARA — Turkey's surprise indecisive parliamentary elections June 7 has left the ruling party in the minority for the first time since 2002, pushing defense procurement decisions and top programs into uncertainty.

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) won 41 percent of the vote and 259 seats in parliament, 18 short of the minimum 276 seats necessary to have the majority in the 550-seat legislature. The AKP is in talks to form a coalition government with any of the three opposition parties that entered parliament.

It remains unclear which opposition party will ally with the AKP. If neither the AKP nor the opposition can In case the AKP (or the opposition) cannot form a government within 45 days after June 7, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will call for early elections. Observers say any election this year would produce more or less the same results.

"It is likely that we will agree on coalition terms with one of the three opposition parties," said an aide to Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. "It is in the best interests of the country that a coalition government emerges out of this deadlock."

It remains uncertain on what political terms a coalition deal could be made. It also remains uncertain how the AKP and its coalition partner would share ministries, including defense.

Even if the AKP maintained the Defense Ministry, a senior MoD official said, Davutoglu might decide to reshuffle his cabinet and the defense ministry. "We expect a subsequent reshuffling of the procurement bureaucracy, too," he said.

An overall reshuffling of procurement bureaucracy would be certain if the AKP's coalition partner takes up the Defense Ministry. A new minister from a non-AKP party would mean a new procurement chief to head of the procurement office, the Undersecretariat for Defense Industries (SSM). That would be followed by a subsequent reshuffling of key personnel at the SSM.

"If a new party takes over the Defense Ministry, major programs may be reviewed and probably restructured," a senior SSM official said. "It is not a secret that the opposition parties view most of our indigenous programs with suspicion."

The prime minister's aide said that the AKP will insist on keeping the Defense Ministry within its portfolio. "Defense industry and the several indigenous programs developed during the AKP's term in office have been one of the government's priority subjects," the aide said. "It is highly unlikely that the prime minister would give up on these programs and agree to any coalition partner taking over."

Turkey has been running a slew of ambitious indigenous programs including a new-generation battle tank, drones, basic trainer aircraft, a fighter jet, submarines, corvettes and a regional jet with dual civilian and military use.

The country's top procurement panel, the Defense Industry Executive Committee, remains inactive amid political turmoil. The panel is chaired by the prime minister. Its other members are the defense minister, SSM's chief and chief of the military general staff.

"I don't expect the committee to convene at any time soon," the SSM official said. "And when it convenes, it will probably have at least one new member."

A Western observer said it would be highly unlikely that Turkey gives up all of its efforts in recent years in designing, developing and producing its indigenous systems.

"I think the political situation will delay rather than kill all those programs," said the London-based specialist. "They can be rewritten or restructured depending on who runs procurement. But at some point, things will pick up."

A Western industry source agreed with that view. "We know some things will change whether or not the AKP maintains control over procurement," he said. "But we do not expect fundamental change. It will probably be the old wine in a new bottle."

Email: bbekdil@defensenews.com

Burak Ege Bekdil was the Turkey correspondent for Defense News.

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