Radar Market Poised for Modest Growth

The two main drivers are deliveries of fixed-wing aircraft with integrated radar systems, notably the F-35, and the proliferation of demand for air and missile defense radar systems, said Sebastian Sobolev, project manager for Avascent's analytics division.

"The short-term bump is AMDR and F-15 modifications," he said. "I think a lot of the airborne fire-control spending is really going to be driven by a lot of the programs that we all sort of know and love here and abroad: It's F-35 coming on line and spinning up to high production rates."

Farther out, there will also be substantial demand for air and missile defense radar systems, he said.

"That's going to come from the Middle East and Asia, by and large, those are requirements that have either been stated as a matter of policy that those countries are going to pursue, or gaps that we've identified," Sobolev said.

For the next decade, air and missile defense radar systems and airborne fire control will continue to make up more than half the market, he said.

Along with the US, nations with well-developed militaries are transitioning away from mechanically scanned array antennae to active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars, said Douglas Barrie, a London-based senior fellow for military aerospace with the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"It's a much more reliable technology" and has several performance advantages, he said. "The mean time between failures is far less. It gives you greater range. It allows you to do a number of searches pretty much simultaneously."

Joe Hulsey, a retired Navy officer who flew EA-6B Prowlers and served as Northrop Grumman's program manager on the EA-18G, said the US' protracted acquisition schedule means that the radar market will remain relatively stable.

"With the defense budget down, there are fewer programs, but there are still opportunities out there. There's still the need to protect the US in a way that we really haven't much before," he said.

Future platforms that will include new radar selections include the frigate version of the US Navy's littoral combat ship and the sixth-generation fighter, Hulsey said.

However, advances in radar technology are likely to be incremental unless the development of a new innovation coincides with the production of a major new platform, he said.

There are a few limiting factors on the radar market. The necessity of hundreds of expensive transmit/receive modules makes AESA systems very expensive, pricing them out of the budgets of many countries that would like to upgrade.

Additionally, there are physical limitations to how much information processors can handle, said Hulsey.

"Historically, we've been computer constrained," he said.

Militaries are also exploring the possibility of scaling down AESA systems and putting them on smaller platforms, like UAVs or weapons, said Barrie.

One major hurdle is cost effectiveness, he said.

"The cost equation of putting an active electronically scanned radar array on a weapon is a difficult one to crack, because you only use it once. It's not coming back," Barrie said.

However, if the intended target is worth tens of millions of dollars, a long-range air-to-air missile with AESA could be justifiable, he said.

The ultimate goal is to make radars that don't dictate the design of aircraft or ships, where large panels on deck make it obvious what they are, how many there are an which direction they are pointed. Today's combat aircraft design requires a large space in the nose for radar, but a radar shaped to the skin of the aircraft instead could offer 240- to 300-degree coverage, Barrie said.

Email: aclevenger@defensenews.com

Twitter: @andclev

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