Iran Bill Sets Up Political Tests

WASHINGTON — Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker is slated to tee up a bill Tuesday that will put members on the spot about a potential deal over Iran's nuclear program.

The Tennessee Republican's bill appears to have broad bipartisan support, but whether there are 67 votes in the chamber to nix a promised veto by President Barack Obama is unclear. Still, when the committee marks up the bill Tuesday and Wednesday, 19 senators will face a slew of votes that will force them to think hard about global affairs, regional ramifications in the testy Middle East — and their own political fates.

The panel's action on the much-anticipated bill comes amid sweeping support for a diplomatic resolution to Tehran's atomic program. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found only 5 percent of Democrats support moving ahead with a solely military plan to keep Iran from getting the bomb. Only 11 percent of Republicans prefer a way ahead that features only US military force, according to the poll.

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That means, when it comes time for panel members to hold a final vote on the Corker bill, they essentially will be casting a vote to establish a mechanism under which Congress would defy an overwhelming majority of American voters.

Corker's bill would require the president to submit to Congress, by the fifth day after reaching any deal with Tehran, the text of the pact. Obama also would have to submit a report that would be prepared by Secretary of State John Kerry assessing the ability to verify Iran's compliance.

Included in Kerry's "verification assessment report" would be a list of any sanctions the White House intends to waive, something opposed by many Republicans and causes great skepticism among many Democrats.

The bill would require a presidential certification that any deal would not allow Tehran to develop a nuclear weapon or "constitute an unreasonable risk to the common defense and security."

The Corker bill would set up a 60-day period during which his panel and others would hold hearings and take other steps to fully understand the deal six world powers reach with Iranian leaders. It also seeks to limit the sanctions Obama could waive during that span.

Notably, the legislation would not mandate follow-on votes on the House and Senate floor on any eventual Iranian nuclear deal. But it does at several points mention "a joint resolution stating in substance that the Congress does favor the agreement."

That's how the Corker bill looks as it enters the full committee mark up. How it will look after what could be a lengthy and potentially sometimes-contentious two-day affair is an open question. That's because members of both parties are set to offer — and debate, in true Senate fashion — a list of amendments.

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., will propose on that would allowing Obama "to waive sanctions during the period of congressional review if a failure to do so would be a breach of the final comprehensive agreement," an aide said.

The freshman senator plans to offer another measure that would strike a provision tying Iran's alleged support of terrorism to congressional approval of a nuclear deal. It was insisted upon by the panel's indicted former ranking member, Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., and the panel's vote will be a test of the embattled senator's power.

Making that amendment vote all the more intriguing is a section the aide said "clarifies that Congress retains the ability to increase sanctions on Iran for its support of terrorist activities."

Sen. Barbara Boxer of California, a senior Democrat on the panel, wrote Corker last week to put off the mark up and committee vote on his legislation.

She wants him to "heed the bipartisan advice of leaders like Madeleine Albright, Richard Lugar, Carl Levin and Nancy Kassebaum, and delay consideration of any legislation ... until a final agreement has been reached."

"To force Congress to weigh in now on the Iran nuclear talks before a final deal has been completed would be a reckless rush to judgment," Boxer wrote. "It would undermine negotiations at a critical moment and could derail a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to deal with this looming threat."

To that end, Boxer intends to propose an amendment urging the committee to delay a vote until Iran and the world powers possibly ink a deal. The deadline for a pact is June 30.

"She also filed a substitute amendment that would replace the Corker bill with her Iran bill," an aide said. That legislation, which has a handful of Democratic co-sponsors, "would require the administration to regularly report to Congress on Iranian compliance with any deal, and sets up an expedited process for Congress to reinstate sanctions and impose other penalties if Iran violates the terms of the deal," according to Boxer's office.

Her aide said she is mulling other amendments she might propose on Tuesday and Wednesday.

"Congress has a constitutional obligation in matters of war, peace, and national security, and neither President Obama nor any other president can by himself make an agreement with such far-reaching consequences for our country and the world," Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., wrote in a Monday op-ed. "I will vote in favor of a congressional role.

"American history is replete with examples of Senate engagement on major international security policies, from its rejection of the League of Nations over President Woodrow Wilson's opposition to its effectively stopping the Vietnam War over President Richard Nixon's opposition," Toomey added.

With the June 30 deadline for the talks, Corker's 60-day review period and the congressional calendar, the timing of a vote in the Senate would come after lawmakers' annual month-long August recess.

"The Ayatollah and President Obama appear to be talking about two separate agreements and unfortunately, I can't say I'm surprised," said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a potential 2016 GOP presidential candidate. "President Obama wants a deal way too badly, and his administration has been trying to sell a deal which may not actually exist.

Suzanne Maloney, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the Khamenei speech could complicate the White House's push to prevent congressional action.

"It came just at a moment when President Obama seemed to be beginning to make some headway in a precarious effort to hold off congressional attempts to subvert the deal through legislative action," according to Maloney said. "And it will inevitably make the administration's task of finding a viable compromise for a bill that would give Congress an up-or-down vote on a deal even more difficult."

Matthew McInnis, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) wrote recently that Iranian leaders almost certainly know "full, up-front, sanctions relief remains a non-starter for the United States and the other P5+1 members.

"Most likely this is Iranian posturing for an even better deal," McInnis wrote. "The Supreme Leader's speech this week certainly raises more doubts about the viability of this agreement, but it is no reason to contemplate further concessions on sanctions, inspections, or … investigations."

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