Panelists questioned by U.S. lawmakers June 23 about Russia's willingness to cooperate with the now-stalled U.S. plans to build defensive missile systems in Eastern Europe said it will be difficult to reach any agreement with Moscow.
Plans for the United States to begin construction of anti-missile silos in Poland and radar in the Czech Republic are on hold while the Obama administration considers the issue.
"They know the European site isn't going to pose any threat to their nuclear capability. We know they know that, but they have a lot of pride with regard to what they see as parity with the U.S.," Keith Payne, CEO of the National Institute of Public Policy, told the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.
The Russian concern about maintaining strategic parity with the United States is highlighted by the fact that much of their nuclear arsenal is aging and nearing the end of service. At the same time, the Russians maintain a large arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons for homeland defense.
"They would like to achieve parity with the United States in the only way that they can, and that is to bring our numbers down. They would like to retain and improve their tactical nuclear weapons, which they have already said are off the table for negotiations," Payne said.
Former Defense Secretary William Perry said the United States would be reluctant to concede to Russian requests to alter or cancel the proposed sites.
"We are not going to make an agreement not to have a missile defense system in Eastern Europe," said Perry, Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor, Stanford University. "The Russians will want some time of binding constraints on our missile defense program and I do not think we should give them these constraints but give them something less," said Perry.
A U.S. Missile Defense Agency (mda) spokesman says they are poised to follow whatever lead they get from the White House, secretary of defense and State Department regarding possible Russian involvement or cooperation.
"Gen. O'Reilly [MDA Chief Lt. Gen. Patrick O'Reilly] has been to Russia to look for areas of U.S.-Russian cooperation," said MDA spokesman Rick Lehner.
Lawmakers asked panelists for options.
"If the Russians open the door to this, what should be our position? What should we ask of the Russians. What should we ask of them do to?" asked Rep. David Scott, D-Ga.
Several panelists suggested the United States ask Russia for more cooperation in putting pressure on Iran in exchange for accommodating some Russian concerns.
"I think it clearly is in their national interests. Geography dictates what I would hope to be their willingness to cooperate. If the purpose of the deployment is to deter from Iran, they have a lot more to lose from a nuclear Iran," said Rep. Bill Delahunt, D.-Mass., speaking after the hearing.
But it remained unclear what specific areas of cooperation might be available.
"Do we have to show that we have to conspicuously reduce our own nuclear position?" asked Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D.-Texas.
"Not exactly. I think what we need to do is mention as much as we can that we are not their enemy. This is a long-term process," said Payne.
Ambassador Thomas Graham, who served as Special Representative of the President for Arms Control, Non-Proliferation, and Disarmament during the Clinton administration from 1994 to 1997, said the Russians offered the use of some of their own territory during the Bush administration. Graham also served as a legal adviser to the SALT II, START I and II agreements.
The Russians said, "we'll offer you the Azerbaijan radar. We went and inspected the Azerbaijan radar and it was a little bit on the decrepit side," said Graham, chairman of Thorium Power, a Va.-based firm focused on nuclear fuel issues.
In addition, lawmakers and panelists discussed the feasibility of moving toward a global ban on nuclear weapons.
"We need to proceed because time is not on our side. If the objective of a world without weapons is ever to be contemplated, this multinational phase must begin not too long into the future," Graham said.
Rep. Dana Rohrbacher, R-Calif., took a different approach.
"A world without weapons makes no sense as long as we live in a world with tyrants who murder their own people and threaten others," he said.
At very least, any move toward global nuclear disarmament would need to involve serious U.S.-Russian cooperation, Payne said.
The Army's Future Combat Systems (FCS) program is ready to test a few components that soldiers may have in their hands by 2010.
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