Establish 'Rules of the Road' in the Gulf
By LAWRENCE KORB and TRITA PARSI
Published: 22 June 2009
In the past four months, two European submarines carrying nuclear weapons collided in the Atlantic Ocean, Chinese ships harassed a U.S. Navy vessel in the South China Sea, an American nuclear submarine ran into the USS New Orleans in the Strait of Hormuz, and a Chinese submarine collided with an underwater sonar array towed by the U.S. destroyer John S. McCain off the coast of the Philippines.
Luckily, these incidents resulted in nothing worse than minor injuries and bruised egos. But an accidental confrontation between two hostile navies - say, the United States and Iran - could be disastrous, particularly at this time of turmoil in Iran, and we should do all that we can to strengthen protocols for avoiding such incidents in the future.
The collision in late March between two U.S. Navy vessels in the Strait of Hormuz was entirely predictable. This is because 400 U.S. Navy ships pass through the strait's two-mile-wide shipping lanes each year. Add to that the incredibly high commercial traffic - about 252 tankers pass through the strait every week, totaling more than 100 million dead-weight tons - and this small body of water becomes very crowded.
We were reminded just how small the strait is in January 2008, when Iranian speedboats took provocative action against three U.S. Navy ships, which reportedly were on the verge of opening fire. This incident demonstrated that, in the absence of formal relations between the United States and Iran, vital military-to-military communication is sorely lacking.
If the U.S. and Iranian navies clashed, Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz at least temporarily, preventing nearly 40 percent of the world's oil from reaching gas stations around the globe. And with America's forces stretched thin trying to deal with the tenuous situations in Iraq and Afghanistan, a third war in the region could be catastrophic.
Preventing Incidents at Sea
Wisely, U.S. President Barack Obama is already reaching out to open a dialogue with Iran. The results of his administration's comprehensive policy review are expected soon. Obama would do well to include a plan for an "Incidents-at-Sea Agreement" with Iran as part of his strategy. In fact, a bipartisan bill introduced by Reps. John Conyers, D-Mich., and Geoff Davis, R-Ky., and co-sponsored by 11 Republicans, calls for such an agreement.
A military-to-military agreement to establish "rules of the road" for the Persian Gulf would promote U.S. national security and protect America's ships and sailors in the world's most important oil chokepoint. Such negotiations could get under way immediately, as direct military contacts would not depend on progress on the larger diplomatic issues. It is in both America's and Iran's best interest to establish some protocol now because the threat of another incident is so real, as the last several months have shown.
What's more, this plan has historical precedent. The United States entered into an Incidents-at-Sea Agreement with the Soviet Union in 1972, negotiated by then-U.S. Navy Secretary John Warner, who went on to become chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. The agreement eased tensions on the high seas and helped keep the Cold War from turning hot.
Keep it Multilateral
The situation with Iran demands similar action. Warner himself believes that such an agreement with Iran makes sense, but suggests that it be multilateral, that is, shared equally with France, Britain and the Netherlands, and other navies that operate in the strait.
In the absence of established lines of communication and agreed-upon protocols for avoiding incidents, the combination of tense relations, crowded shipping lanes, and huge investments of U.S. and Iranian naval assets makes the risk of an accidental conflict with Iran unacceptably high. As part of a larger effort to engage Iran on core issues such as its nuclear program, Iraq and Afghanistan, terrorism and human rights, direct military communication between American and Iranian officials, once the situation in Iran stabilizes, could lay a foundation on which to base more positive and constructive relations in the future. ■
Lawrence Korb is a former U.S. assistant secretary of defense and a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, Washington. Trita Parsi is president of the National Iranian American Council.
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