Runaway Raptor Costs
DoD Buying Chief Slams F-22 Upgrades, Upkeep
By JOHN T. BENNETT
Published: 24 November 2008
Ostensibly, Pentagon acquisition executive John Young was just talking about a long-planned upgrade when he revealed U.S. Air Force plans to spend $8 billion in 2010 to improve 100 F-22 fighters. Several sources confirmed that the plans have been on the books for years - but they also said Young's comments were part of a Bush administration effort to bring Raptor production to a permanent end.
In a scathing critique of the Raptor program during a Nov. 20 session with reporters, Young also said tests indicate the stealthy fighters may be less reliable and more expensive to operate than promised.
Young said the Air Force had long planned "a two-tiered structure" in which some of the earlier Raptors are "lesser jets" to be upgraded eventually. The time to begin has now come, he said; the service has slated some $6.3 billion in 2010 for the research and development needed to bring those 100 jets up to "a common, high-end, capable configuration" called Block 35.
But he expressed concern about spending so much to upgrade the Air Force's prized fighter because "this is [for] a platform we've already developed."
Several officials and sources who have been a part of or who closely monitor Raptor program planning said Young appears to be "planting a poison pill" in the waning days of the Bush administration as part of an effort to prevent extensions to the program.
"This is not news to anyone who has been involved with or following the program. People have been pointing this out for years: GAO, the Congressional Budget Office, the Congressional Research Service," said Christopher Bolkcom, a defense aerospace analyst at CRS. "The difference is now you have someone of John Young's stature saying it publicly."
Michael Wynne, who was Air Force secretary until June, confirmed that upgrades were always part of the F-22 plan. But the sooner-than-hoped-for end to Raptor production led Air Force leaders to speed up the work, he said.
And he said Young's comments were part of an anti-Raptor effort.
"This administration wants the American public to believe it's not worth investing in the F-22," said Wynne, who clashed repeatedly with his bosses over keeping the Raptor alive until he was fired after a string of nuclear mishaps.
The Bush administration has long opposed buying more than 183 Raptors. The Air Force has maintained it needs 381. The Bush Pentagon team earlier this year decided to leave the Raptor's fate up to the new president.
Wynne said other major acquisition programs, like the F-35 Lightning II fighter and DDG 1000 destroyer, also will need "big infusions" of cash in coming years to achieve initial program plans. He said Young is unfairly singling out one program in an attempt to bring about its end.
Wynne noted that over the years, the Air Force spent "big money" to improve the radars on its F-15 fighter jets.
"So why didn't [Young] talk about F-15 radar upgrades?" Wynne asked. "Because this is … about stifling investment in this program."
Wynne said F-22 production should continue at Lockheed Martin's Marietta, Ga., production line until the F-35 "is proven in three or four years." Lockheed makes both fighter jets.
At press time, a Pentagon spokes-man had not responded to an inquiry seeking additional information on the planned upgrades.
At press time, a spokeswoman for Lockheed had not yet returned a call seeking comment.
Spending Debates
Even before Young spoke out, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Gordon England, deputy defense secretary, had advocated publicly against buying more Raptors - but not with the level of detail provided by Young. Sources said Young's comments seem timed to influence the coming debate about the F-22's future between Congress and the Obama administration.
The Office of the Secretary of Defense "is pissed off at the Air Force for going behind their backs to the Congress and lobbying for 20 new F-22s," said one congressional aide, who said Pentagon officials "are airing their dirty laundry in public, trying to influence the decision the Obama administration is going to have to make."
Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at the Fairfax, Va.-based Teal Group, said, "Young and the DoD leadership, seem intent on portraying the F-22 fleet and more F-22 procurement as unaffordable. Whether he's right or not, both his office and Congress are ratcheting up the tension in their power struggle."
In the 2009 defense spending measures, Congress directed DoD to spend $140 million of advance procurement money on parts for 20 more F-22s, which would help bring the fleet to 203 Raptors.
Young told a House Armed Services subcommittee Nov. 19 that senior Pentagon officials, who decided to only spend $50 million on parts for four planes, are trying to save money in advance of a decision about the program's future.
The next morning with reporters, Young cautioned that before the Obama administration decides whether to buy more Raptors, OSD and Air Force brass should seriously discuss issues like the needed upgrades.
"Those discussions need to be had before you talk about buying more jets," he said.
Wynne said that if the next Pentagon team decides to stop the program at 187 jets, he doubts "those upgrades will ever happen."
Another question that also will help shape the F-22 program, the congressional aide said, is whether Raptor proponents in Congress can muster enough support - á la the C-17 program - on Capitol Hill to keep the program alive, even if the Obama Pentagon stops budgeting for more of the fighters.
"There are many who have legitimate concerns that, with the [F-35] still in low-rate initial production, any president would be damn happy to have more F-22s around if we had to get into a fight with China," the aide said. "There has been this tension building for several years, and now it's here. And it's coming to a head."
Aboulafia said the F-22 situation is beginning to remind him of the so-called F-14D compromise.
Under that Capitol Hill-Pentagon deal, 18 new D-model F-14s were funded in 1990, Aboulafia said. The compromise included a "poison pill," he said, which brought "the end of new F-14D production after the [fiscal] 1990 batch was delivered in July 1992."
Too Expensive To Fly?
The software upgrade plan is not all the next Pentagon leaders will have to debate about the super-secret Raptor, according to Young. He said operational tests have showed the plane is "proving very expensive to operate."
He said, "maintenance man-hours per flying hour has increased through those tests. The last one was a substantial increase."
Young also expressed concerns about the plane's mission-capable rates, saying recent marks in the "62 percent kind of range" are "troubling." He also said data shows the plane "meets some but not all" of its key performance parameters."
"We're not seeing the mission-capable rates that we expected. And it's complex to maintain," Young told reporters. "I would highlight the maintenance on the plane is too high. They are struggling with some of the [low-observable features] and other issues." ■
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