Moscow Offers AA Missiles to Tehran
By Nabi Abdullaev
Published: 29 September 2008
MOSCOW - Russia is negotiating a partial sale of advanced anti-aircraft systems to Iran, Anatoly Isaikin, general director of Russia's state arms export agency Rosoboronexport, said Sept. 17.
If acquired, the S-300 missile system would complicate surgical strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, as contemplated by U.S. and Israeli military planners, security experts said.
Speaking at the Africa Aerospace and Defence-2008 (AAD-2008) exhibition near Cape Town, South Africa, Isaikin said "some countries" demand that Russia limit its weapon deliveries to Iran. Isaikin apparently referred to Israel and the United States, which have slapped Russian defense companies with sanctions for military cooperation with Iran.
But, Isaikin added, there are no international restrictions that would stop Moscow fromproviding air defense systems to Iran. In 2007, Russia delivered 29 Tor-M1 anti-aircraft missile systems for Iran, causing an outcry from Washington and Tel Aviv.
Isaikin didn't provide details about the anti-aircraft systems being negotiated with Iran, but most experts concurred that these are S-300 PMU (called SA-20 Gargoyle by NATO) long-range, surface-to-air missile systems developed by Almaz-Antei.
The S-300 PMU system is designed to defend large sensitive facilities and military bases, and to control airspace against enemy strike aircraft. It is capable of defending against aircraft and cruise and ballistic missiles with radars able to simultaneously track up to 100 targets while engaging up to 12. The system can be deployed in five minutes.
Russia has sold the S-300 to China, which bought more than 20 batteries, and Algeria expects delivery of eight batteries of S-300 PMU-2 systems. Vietnam and Cyprus have acquired two batteries of S-300 PMU-1 systems, according to the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies think tank. Venezuela, an increasingly voracious buyer of Russian arms, also was eyeing S-300s.
The S-300 PMU-1 has a range of up to 70 kilometers, while S-300 PMU-2 can hit targets as far as 120 kilometers.
The battery can consist of four and more systems. According to expert estimates, each system may cost between $125 million and $150 million.
In 2004, Moscow offered to sell Tehran five batteries of the S-300 PMU-1 to provide air defense for the capital city, the industrial center of Isfahan, the Arabian Gulf naval base of Bender-Abbas and the nuclear power station in Bushehr.
The deal was expected to be reached in March 2006, but Moscow abruptly cut the talks in January 2006 to demonstrate its discontent with the Iran's nuclear ambitions.
A Boost Against Israeli Strike?
Military experts agreed the S-300 could undercut Israel's ability to strike the facilities where Iran is suspected by the United States and Israel of developing a military nuclear program.
"If S-300s are deployed to control the air while Tor-M1 systems protect S-300s as Moscow proposed to Iran from the very beginning, Iran will enjoy a dramatically higher level of air defense than now," said Vladimir Yevseyev, a security expert at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, a think tank here.
Yevseyev and Theodore Karasik, a Middle East security expert at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, Dubai, agreed that these systems would challenge Israel's military to its limits, possibly requiring U.S. involvement to carry out an effective strike.
Still, the analysts agreed that a possible strike hangs mostly on political rather than military reasons.
The issue is tied to the presidential elections in the United States later this year and in Iran next June, where a fervently anti-American Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might be replaced by a moderate Ali Laridjani.
Other Factors
Politics aside, experts said procurement of the S-300 might have given Israel a time frame to conduct a strike, but other variables are at work.
First, Russia might be bluffing in response to U.S. support for Georgia in the recent military conflict in the Caucasus. It may also signal Moscow's displeasure for Israeli training of the Georgian Army ahead of the conflict, said Konstantin Makiyenko, an expert with the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a think tank here.
Second, even if Russia reaches the deal with Iran, it is not clear how much time it would take for deliveries to start. Yevseyev said the S-300s are no longer being produced by Almaz-Antei, and it is possible Russia has none in stock. Such information cannot be obtained through formal channels.
So, the most possible scenario is that Russia would supply deployed S-300s as it replaces them with more advanced S-400 anti-aircraft systems, Yevseyev suggested.
It would also take three to six months to train Iranian military specialists to operate the systems, experts said.
Another consideration is how long it will take Iran to build a nuclear bomb.
Researchers provide different estimates, ranging from two to three years from now, to two years after Iran's potential blocking of inspections of its nuclear facilities by the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency.
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