It's hard to imagine any single figure with more influence over the current course of geopolitical events than Russian President Vladimir Putin.

As the head of the Russian Federation, Putin has presided over a concerted effort to modernize and professionalize Russia's armed forces, an effort that will continue into the 2020s. Though still a shell of the Red Army of the Cold War, Putin has at his disposal a force capable of conducting small-scale warfare anywhere in the former Soviet Union, and now in the Middle East.

Putin's iron grip over Russian political institutions allows him to maximize the impact of his limited military power in service of larger Russian foreign policy goals. A stark example of this in action is the Russian aerial campaign in support of Syrian President Bashar Assad. The mission has had an outsized influence on the course of that conflict, arguably saving Assad's forces from collapse.

What makes Putin an especially effective actor on the international stage is the speed with which he can choose to apply his limited force-projection abilities to achieve his goals. This is enabled largely by the political structures Putin has built at home over his 16 years at the top of Russian politics.

Decision-making processes in the Kremlin remain murky, but what is apparent is that Putin's inner circle of advisors and decision-makers has become exceedingly small. His political clan has effectively denied realistic alternatives to his reign from rising too high in Russian political and social circles, and the marginalized opposition has been fractured and laden with petty infighting. They represent no serious alternative to prominent regime figures.

In Moscow, and Russia as a whole, Putin enjoys unprecedented popularity – according to state-run pollsters. Independent polling groups, such as the prestigious Levada Center, have been silenced. So too have independent media outlets that might question or shoot holes in popular narratives driven by the Kremlin on issues ranging from domestic and international policy to the economy.

In short, Putin enjoys an unrivaled ability to steer the course of his nation, has captured the media to turn it into a cheerleading service for his policies – especially with regards to Ukraine, Syria, and the broader standoff with the West – and effectively destroyed any meaningful opposition movements. In September's State Duma elections, his United Russia party secured an unprecedented supermajority.

But while this projects an image of strength, his system is built on a fundamental sense of weakness and fragility. His policies today stem from a survival instinct. With the economy in the lurches, Russians must be mobilized by patriotic fervor to keep their eyes away from the domestic political situation.

For Western policymakers, Putin's behavior on the international stage can be interpreted as lashing out against perceived threats to his domestic legitimacy – which makes him exceedingly dangerous and unpredictable. With no serious indication of domestic political or economic reforms on the horizon, his revanchist and erratic behavior will likely be exacerbated with time - unless he steps down as president with the upcoming 2018 Russian presidential election.

This article is part of a larger Defense News 30-year anniversary project, showcasing the people, programs and innovations from the last three decades that most shaped the global security arena. Go to defensenews.com/30th to see all of our coverage.

About Matthew Bodner

Matthew Bodner covered Russian affairs for Defense News.

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